Key Capital Annual Market Outlook - 2026

Key Capital's Annual Market Outlook in Dublin was held over two sessions, breakfast and lunch, on January 28th, and was presented by Ian Kilcullen, Managing Director of Key Capital Private.

We reflected on the past year and gave attendees a sense of how we interpret the market movements that unfolded in 2025. It was also an opportunity to look forward to the year ahead and the key issues that are likely to impact markets.

This year’s presentation covered a wide range of themes, but the central narrative that dominated was the role AI now plays in the US equity market and the US economy.

The US economy is heavily reliant on AI Capex spending, the US stock market's performance is heavily reliant on AI-related names, and US consumer spending is being supported by the top 10% who are feeling wealthy, largely due to the US stock market's performance. This creates a significant level of interdependence, and a lot of it depends on AI capex spending being maintained and ultimately a clear earnings boost from all this spending. A high level of interdependence within any system increases fragility.

1. Watch the 8 minute video edit. LINK: AI CapEx Spending and AI Financing

2. Watch the event video – Full presentation. LINK: Full Outlook 2026 Presentation

3. Download the presentation slides below.

MARKETING MATERIAL. This content is high level market commentary for information purposes only.  It does not constitute investment advice or recommendation.

Key Capital Private Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

Contact Us

For further information about the Key Capital Private call us in confidence.

Phone: +353 1 638 3850